BTC – “Volatility Expected”

1-Day Analysis:

Big Picture: Almost 100 sessions of consolidation into the macro-demand zone. This appears to be an accumulation phase, but confirmation is essential. Downstream channels operate in three stages, beginning with the downside, followed by an accumulation band, and finally the expansion phase. The sideway channel is reaching its 100th session, but whether or not the expansion phase is ready remains to be seen. Going forward, Bitcoin remains firmly in the demand zone; but, failure to hold it here would confirm the sideways channel as a re-distribution phase, with price aiming for the lower trendline supports next. However, the chances of that happening remain slim, but anything really hawkish from the Fed might be the tipping point. The session for the day is expected to be quite volatile.

On the Upside the intraday resistance level of 19,550-19,800 remains significant. These are substantial levels of resistance that will require the bulls’ determination to overcome. Furthermore, EMA-50 is now present in this zone, increasing this zones significance. If the price is to rise further, the zone between 19,550 and 19,800 must be breached. A dominance over here takes Bitcoin to 20,400, then 20,900, and possibly towards 21,800.

On the Downside the intra-day supports are currently holding between 18,900 and 18,750. If these can keep the price from falling lower, the chances of an upward rise increase dramatically. Loss of these, on the other side, would send the price back down to the 18,250-17,950 range, and perhaps to the June lows. The June low is critical because price cannot trade below this level for an extended period of time. Doing so could very well trigger another round of panic selling. Even if price falls below this support level, it should rapidly retake control above to eliminate the possibility of hyper-selling.