BTC-“Active Risk Management Advised”

12-Hour Analysis:

Big Picture: The range levels are narrowing with each passing session. Also, during the weekend, the volatility parameter dropped to its lowest point since January 2023. This signals that price activity has dried up and momentum has diminished. However, things could change in the upcoming sessions, and volatility may begin to normalize again, overall improving the trading environment for the pair.

On the Upside the level at 28,140 posed a challenge to price during the weekend. That level, however, was breached on the eve of weekly candle closings. Price has moved up into the next resistance level at 28,450 after breaking over 28,140. So far, a similar initial rejection has been observed at this level. Bulls must break over the 28,450 barrier to build fresh momentum, which will assist in target higher levels in the 28,750 to 29,075 range. This is the major congestion zone that has been limiting the upside for several weeks. Additionally this is also the 25% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2021 to November 2022 macro-high and macro-low.

On the Downside the dynamic EMA-32 level is providing significant support to Bitcoin. This EMA has been tested three times in the last two weeks, and each test has provoked a significant reaction and effectively reversed the price back to the upside. As long as Bitcoin holds it, the upside potential stays higher, but losing this EMA exposes Bitcoin to the next dynamic EMA support of the EMA-50. Both of these levels give sufficient support. However, for the session, the 26,600 support level is very important since holding this level would keep the corrective wave at bay. Losing 26,600, on the other hand, could accelerate profit-taking and would expose Bitcoin towards lower levels around 26,200 level and possibly even lower.