Big Picture: Fears of a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine have prompted markets to take a caution approach. We could likely see ranged to heavy price action till further clearance on the situation. However, the ranged opened towards 41800 once 42800 level support was broken. BTC is falling in a descending channel and looks likely to test 40400 region. This is where CME Gap is also present that needs to be filled. In-order to bring excitement BTC needs to climb and stronghold above 44k. Doing so will likely open 45.5k once more followed by 46700 and eventually 48k.
On Upside Initial resistance is seen around 42400-42800 followed by 43800-44k level. Bulls need to stronghold above this level to bring back excitement into the market. However this excitement could be short-lived if 45500 level continues to resist the upside. This level 45000-45500 remains to be a strong resistance that is capping the upside. A clean break above this level is likely to open re-test of EMA-200 Daily and Mid-Range of the Higher Time Frame Trend around 46600-46800.
On the Downside 41800 is seen as a strong intra-day support. If this support is lost then we are likely to see 40400 followed by 39500. Both these levels are seen as strong supports and are likely to trigger short-coverings. BTC is safe as long as it stays above 38k, but holding below 38k would be a red carpet welcome for Bears who are then likely to open 36k initially followed by 32k and eventually 30k.